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Wohnbau Dietach vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gurten
Gurten
3/28/2026Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 20DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach25%
×Draw26%
Gurten49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wohnbau Dietach
1.02
Gurten
1.52

Gurten creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach
0.87
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach
1.47
Gurten
1.18

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw
51%
Wohnbau Dietach or Gurten
74%
Draw or Gurten
75%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
9%
Gurten wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
64%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
27%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
8%
Gurten 1+ goals
78%
Gurten 2+ goals
45%
Gurten 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
34%
Gurten (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 0.87 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Gurten attack 1.58 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more
25%
level
26%
Gurten scores more
49%

Gurten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wohnbau Dietach vs Gurten

Gurten beat Wohnbau Dietach 1-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at DietachArena in Dietach.