Gurten 5–0 Wohnbau Dietach: Result & Stats

Gurten

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Wohnbau Dietach

8/29/2025

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 5Park21-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gurten60%

×Draw21%

Wohnbau Dietach19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchWohnbau Dietach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.07

Gurten

2.04

Wohnbau Dietach

1.07

Gurten creates 91% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 15 away

1.74

creates per match

1.33

0.82

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Gurten

1.74

Wohnbau Dietach

1.33

allows per match

Gurten

0.82

Wohnbau Dietach

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

81%

Gurten or Wohnbau Dietach

79%

Draw or Wohnbau Dietach

40%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

36%

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

87%

Gurten 2+ goals

60%

Gurten 3+ goals

33%

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

66%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

29%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

75%

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Wohnbau Dietach attack 1.33 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gurten scores more

60%

level

21%

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

19%

Gurten at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff