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Wohnbau Dietach vs Friedburg / Pöndorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
11/9/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 15DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach51%
×Draw21%
Friedburg / Pöndorf28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wohnbau Dietach
2.10
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.50

Wohnbau Dietach creates 40% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach
2.18
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.85

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach
1.16
Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.03

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par
Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

Friedburg / Pöndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw
72%
Wohnbau Dietach or Friedburg / Pöndorf
79%
Draw or Friedburg / Pöndorf
49%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
30%
Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
88%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
62%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
35%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
78%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
44%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
65%
Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.18 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.10

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 1.85 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more
51%
level
21%
Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
28%

Wohnbau Dietach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Wohnbau Dietach 5–2 Friedburg / Pöndorf

Wohnbau Dietach beat Friedburg / Pöndorf 5-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at DietachArena in Dietach.