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Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Wohnbau Dietach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
FT
3 – 3
Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
8/8/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 1Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf34%
×Draw22%
Wohnbau Dietach43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.65
Wohnbau Dietach
1.87

Wohnbau Dietach creates 13% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 45 away

creates per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.19
Wohnbau Dietach
2.16

allows per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.58
Wohnbau Dietach
1.11

finishing

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par
Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedburg / Pöndorf ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Friedburg / Pöndorf or draw
57%
Friedburg / Pöndorf or Wohnbau Dietach
78%
Draw or Wohnbau Dietach
66%

Winning margin

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
17%
Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
81%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
49%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
23%
Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
85%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
56%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
44%
Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedburg / Pöndorf at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 2.19 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
34%
level
22%
Wohnbau Dietach scores more
43%

Wohnbau Dietach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Wohnbau Dietach

Friedburg / Pöndorf and Wohnbau Dietach drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 8, 2023.

The match was played at Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg in Friedburg.