Wohnbau Dietach 3–0 Bad Schallerbach

Wohnbau Dietach

FT

3 – 0

Bad Schallerbach

9/7/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 6DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach53%

×Draw22%

Bad Schallerbach25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wohnbau DietachExpected goals in this matchBad Schallerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.32

Wohnbau Dietach

2.00

Bad Schallerbach

1.32

Wohnbau Dietach creates 52% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 75 away

2.18

creates per match

1.48

1.16

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach

2.18

Bad Schallerbach

1.48

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach

1.16

Bad Schallerbach

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

Bad Schallerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw

75%

Wohnbau Dietach or Bad Schallerbach

78%

Draw or Bad Schallerbach

47%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

31%

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

86%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

59%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

32%

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals

73%

Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals

38%

Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

68%

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.18 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

53%

level

22%

Bad Schallerbach scores more

25%

Wohnbau Dietach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff