Wofoo Tai Po 3–3 Kitchee: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Wofoo Tai Po

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kitchee

6/19/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wofoo Tai Po46%

×Draw21%

Kitchee33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wofoo Tai PoExpected goals in this matchKitchee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.83

Wofoo Tai Po

2.17

Kitchee

1.83

Wofoo Tai Po creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Wofoo Tai Po

2.33

Kitchee

1.67

allows per match

Wofoo Tai Po

2.00

Kitchee

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wofoo Tai Po ↓

Kitchee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Wofoo Tai Po or draw

67%

Wofoo Tai Po or Kitchee

79%

Draw or Kitchee

54%

Winning margin

Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+

27%

Kitchee wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals

89%

Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals

64%

Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals

36%

Kitchee 1+ goals

84%

Kitchee 2+ goals

54%

Kitchee 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)

58%

Kitchee (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wofoo Tai Po at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Kitchee away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wofoo Tai Po attack 2.33 + Kitchee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kitchee attack 1.67 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wofoo Tai Po scores more

46%

level

21%

Kitchee scores more

33%

Wofoo Tai Po at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wofoo Tai Po will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff