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Kitchee vs Wofoo Tai Po — AFC Cup 2018

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Wofoo Tai Po
Wofoo Tai Po
4/3/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kitchee60%
×Draw21%
Wofoo Tai Po19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
2.07
Wofoo Tai Po
1.09

Kitchee creates 90% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kitchee
2.00
Wofoo Tai Po
0.86

allows per match

Kitchee
1.33
Wofoo Tai Po
2.14

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Wofoo Tai Po →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
81%
Kitchee or Wofoo Tai Po
79%
Draw or Wofoo Tai Po
40%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
36%
Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
87%
Kitchee 2+ goals
61%
Kitchee 3+ goals
34%
Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals
66%
Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals
30%
Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
75%
Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Wofoo Tai Po away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 2.00 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Wofoo Tai Po attack 0.86 + Kitchee defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kitchee scores more
60%
level
21%
Wofoo Tai Po scores more
19%

Kitchee at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Kitchee 2–4 Wofoo Tai Po

Wofoo Tai Po beat Kitchee 4-2 in AFC Cup on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong).