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Wofoo Tai Po vs Hang Yuen — AFC Cup 2018

Wofoo Tai Po
Wofoo Tai Po
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
4/17/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wofoo Tai Po71%
×Draw14%
Hang Yuen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wofoo Tai Po
3.33
Hang Yuen
1.50

Wofoo Tai Po creates 122% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Wofoo Tai Po
2.33
Hang Yuen
1.00

allows per match

Wofoo Tai Po
2.00
Hang Yuen
4.33

finishing

Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par
Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wofoo Tai Po ↓

Hang Yuen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Wofoo Tai Po or draw
86%
Wofoo Tai Po or Hang Yuen
86%
Draw or Hang Yuen
29%

Winning margin

Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+
52%
Hang Yuen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals
96%
Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals
84%
Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals
63%
Hang Yuen 1+ goals
78%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
44%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)
83%
Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wofoo Tai Po at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Hang Yuen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wofoo Tai Po attack 2.33 + Hang Yuen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Hang Yuen attack 1.00 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wofoo Tai Po scores more
71%
level
14%
Hang Yuen scores more
14%

Wofoo Tai Po at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Wofoo Tai Po will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wofoo Tai Po vs Hang Yuen

Wofoo Tai Po beat Hang Yuen 4-2 in AFC Cup on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong).