Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hang Yuen vs Wofoo Tai Po — AFC Cup 2018

Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wofoo Tai Po
Wofoo Tai Po
6/26/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Taipei Municipal Stadium (Taipei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hang Yuen31%
×Draw23%
Wofoo Tai Po46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Yuen
1.41
Wofoo Tai Po
1.76

Wofoo Tai Po creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hang Yuen
0.67
Wofoo Tai Po
0.86

allows per match

Hang Yuen
2.67
Wofoo Tai Po
2.14

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par
Wofoo Tai Po+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Wofoo Tai Po →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw
54%
Hang Yuen or Wofoo Tai Po
77%
Draw or Wofoo Tai Po
69%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+
14%
Wofoo Tai Po wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals
76%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
41%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
17%
Wofoo Tai Po 1+ goals
83%
Wofoo Tai Po 2+ goals
52%
Wofoo Tai Po 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
40%
Wofoo Tai Po (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Wofoo Tai Po away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 0.67 + Wofoo Tai Po defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wofoo Tai Po attack 0.86 + Hang Yuen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hang Yuen scores more
31%
level
23%
Wofoo Tai Po scores more
46%

Wofoo Tai Po at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wofoo Tai Po will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Hang Yuen 1–1 Wofoo Tai Po

Hang Yuen and Wofoo Tai Po drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on June 26, 2019.

The match was played at Taipei Municipal Stadium (Taipei).