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WIT Georgia vs Spaeri — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spaeri
Spaeri
11/9/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 33Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

WIT Georgia34%
×Draw26%
Spaeri40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.29
Spaeri
1.43

Spaeri creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 64 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Spaeri
1.53

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Spaeri
1.28

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Spaeri+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Spaeri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
60%
WIT Georgia or Spaeri
74%
Draw or Spaeri
66%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
15%
Spaeri wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
72%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
37%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
14%
Spaeri 1+ goals
76%
Spaeri 2+ goals
42%
Spaeri 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
46%
Spaeri (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Spaeri away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Spaeri defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spaeri attack 1.53 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
34%
level
26%
Spaeri scores more
40%

Spaeri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Spaeri

WIT Georgia beat Spaeri 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.