Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spaeri vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Spaeri
Spaeri
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
4/1/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 4Stadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Spaeri49%
×Draw24%
WIT Georgia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spaeri
1.73
WIT Georgia
1.23

Spaeri creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

creates per match

Spaeri
1.73
WIT Georgia
1.22

allows per match

Spaeri
1.24
WIT Georgia
1.72

finishing

Spaeri+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spaeri ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spaeri or draw
73%
Spaeri or WIT Georgia
76%
Draw or WIT Georgia
51%

Winning margin

Spaeri wins by 2+
26%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spaeri 1+ goals
82%
Spaeri 2+ goals
52%
Spaeri 3+ goals
25%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
71%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
35%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spaeri (draw refunded)
64%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spaeri at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.72 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spaeri attack 1.73 + WIT Georgia defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.73

WIT Georgia attack 1.22 + Spaeri defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spaeri scores more
49%
level
24%
WIT Georgia scores more
27%

Spaeri at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spaeri vs WIT Georgia

Spaeri and WIT Georgia drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.