WIT Georgia 1–3 Shukura: Result & Stats

WIT Georgia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Shukura

5/12/2022

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 11Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

WIT Georgia36%

×Draw26%

Shukura38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WIT GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchShukura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.36

WIT Georgia

1.31

Shukura

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

1.40

1.32

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

WIT Georgia

1.29

Shukura

1.40

allows per match

WIT Georgia

1.32

Shukura

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Shukura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw

62%

WIT Georgia or Shukura

74%

Draw or Shukura

64%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+

16%

Shukura wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals

73%

WIT Georgia 2+ goals

38%

WIT Georgia 3+ goals

14%

Shukura 1+ goals

74%

Shukura 2+ goals

39%

Shukura 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)

48%

Shukura (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Shukura defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shukura attack 1.40 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

WIT Georgia scores more

36%

level

26%

Shukura scores more

38%

Shukura at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff