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Shukura vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shukura
Shukura
CANC
13:30
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
8/28/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shukura53%
×Draw24%
WIT Georgia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.67
WIT Georgia
0.99

Shukura creates 69% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.61
WIT Georgia
1.22

allows per match

Shukura
0.76
WIT Georgia
1.72

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
78%
Shukura or WIT Georgia
76%
Draw or WIT Georgia
47%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
29%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
81%
Shukura 2+ goals
50%
Shukura 3+ goals
23%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
63%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
26%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
70%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.72 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.61 + WIT Georgia defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

WIT Georgia attack 1.22 + Shukura defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shukura scores more
53%
level
24%
WIT Georgia scores more
22%

Shukura at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shukura face WIT Georgia (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with Shukura hosting WIT Georgia. Match starts August 28, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.