WIT Georgia 1–0 Shukura: Result & Stats

WIT Georgia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shukura

Z. Museliani 11' (pen)

8/18/2020

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 8David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

WIT Georgia35%

×Draw26%

Shukura39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WIT GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchShukura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.38

WIT Georgia

1.29

Shukura

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

1.43

1.32

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

WIT Georgia

1.29

Shukura

1.43

allows per match

WIT Georgia

1.32

Shukura

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Shukura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw

61%

WIT Georgia or Shukura

74%

Draw or Shukura

65%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+

15%

Shukura wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals

72%

WIT Georgia 2+ goals

37%

WIT Georgia 3+ goals

14%

Shukura 1+ goals

75%

Shukura 2+ goals

40%

Shukura 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)

47%

Shukura (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Shukura defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shukura attack 1.43 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

WIT Georgia scores more

35%

level

26%

Shukura scores more

39%

Shukura at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Z. MuselianiPenalty

46'

D. Tatanashvili← I. Ashortia

46'

Jefinho← S. Jintcharadze

63'

G. Kurmashvili← D. Jikia

82'

V. Kisievi← Z. Natchkebia

86'

O. Bulukhadze← L. Barabadze

WIT

Shukura

1

37

2

6

17

16

14

15

10

▼

Jikia

9

▼

Ashortia

31

▼

1

28

4

11

13

23

▼

Natchkebi

22

▼

14

26

21

10

⚽

Museliani

Manager: D. Kokiashvili

82'▲V. Kisievi←▼Z. Natchkebia

86'▲O. Bulukhadze←▼L. Barabadze

WIT Georgia substitutes

24Kisievi20Bulukhadze5Nemsadze7Tkemaladze12Isergishvili

Manager: G. Shashiashvili

46'▲D. Tatanashvili←▼I. Ashortia

46'▲Jefinho←▼S. Jintcharadze

63'▲G. Kurmashvili←▼D. Jikia

Shukura substitutes

18Tatanashvili33Jefinho7Kurmashvili11Tafarel19Verulidze24Takidze3Gadrani

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Shukura

WIT Georgia beat Shukura 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 18, 2020.

Goals: Z. Museliani (11' pen).

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena in Tbilisi.

WIT Georgia vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Shukura