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WIT Georgia vs Gareji — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gareji
Gareji
8/23/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 21Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

WIT Georgia37%
×Draw26%
Gareji37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.37
Gareji
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 75 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Gareji
1.40

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Gareji
1.45

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Gareji+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Gareji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
63%
WIT Georgia or Gareji
74%
Draw or Gareji
63%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
17%
Gareji wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
75%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
40%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
16%
Gareji 1+ goals
74%
Gareji 2+ goals
39%
Gareji 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
50%
Gareji (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Gareji away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Gareji defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gareji attack 1.40 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
37%
level
26%
Gareji scores more
37%

WIT Georgia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Gareji

Gareji beat WIT Georgia 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.