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Gareji vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
10/27/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 30Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Gareji59%
×Draw22%
WIT Georgia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
1.96
WIT Georgia
1.04

Gareji creates 88% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
WIT Georgia
1.22

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
WIT Georgia
1.72

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
80%
Gareji or WIT Georgia
78%
Draw or WIT Georgia
41%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
35%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
86%
Gareji 2+ goals
58%
Gareji 3+ goals
31%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
65%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
28%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
75%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.72 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + WIT Georgia defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

WIT Georgia attack 1.22 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gareji scores more
59%
level
22%
WIT Georgia scores more
20%

Gareji at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gareji vs WIT Georgia

Gareji and WIT Georgia drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni in Sagarejo.