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WIT Georgia vs Betlemi — Liga 3 2026

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Betlemi
Betlemi
D. Rakovenko 71'
T. Bzekalava 65'
B. Gugberidze 57'
N. Khutsishvili 54'
N. Gambarashvili 35'
5/29/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 10Shevardeni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

WIT Georgia71%
×Draw17%
Betlemi11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
2.31
Betlemi
0.79

WIT Georgia creates 192% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.71
Betlemi
0.64

allows per match

WIT Georgia
0.93
Betlemi
2.91

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Betlemi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Betlemi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
89%
WIT Georgia or Betlemi
83%
Draw or Betlemi
29%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
48%
Betlemi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
90%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
67%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
40%
Betlemi 1+ goals
55%
Betlemi 2+ goals
19%
Betlemi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
86%
Betlemi (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Betlemi away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.71 + Betlemi defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.31

Betlemi attack 0.64 + WIT Georgia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
71%
level
17%
Betlemi scores more
11%

WIT Georgia at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
N. Gambarashvili
54'
N. Khutsishvili
57'
B. Gugberidze
65'
T. Bzekalava
71'
D. Rakovenko
WIT
Betlemi
A. Intskirveli
Manager: A. Intskirveli
A. Mujiri
Manager: A. Mujiri

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Betlemi

WIT Georgia beat Betlemi 5-0 in Liga 3 on May 29, 2025.

Goals: N. Gambarashvili (35'), N. Khutsishvili (54'), B. Gugberidze (57'), T. Bzekalava (65'), D. Rakovenko (71').

The match was played at Shevardeni Stadium in Tbilisi.