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Betlemi vs WIT Georgia — Liga 3 2026

Betlemi
Betlemi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
G. Kakhiani 90' (pen)
I. Tchikaidze 87'
10/30/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Betlemi18%
×Draw24%
WIT Georgia58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betlemi
0.82
WIT Georgia
1.68

WIT Georgia creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Betlemi
0.80
WIT Georgia
1.46

allows per match

Betlemi
1.90
WIT Georgia
0.85

finishing

Betlemi+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betlemi ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Betlemi or draw
42%
Betlemi or WIT Georgia
76%
Draw or WIT Georgia
82%

Winning margin

Betlemi wins by 2+
6%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Betlemi 1+ goals
56%
Betlemi 2+ goals
20%
Betlemi 3+ goals
5%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
81%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
50%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Betlemi (draw refunded)
24%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betlemi at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betlemi attack 0.80 + WIT Georgia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

WIT Georgia attack 1.46 + Betlemi defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Betlemi scores more
18%
level
24%
WIT Georgia scores more
58%

WIT Georgia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
I. Tchikaidze
90'
G. KakhianiPenalty
Betlemi
WIT
A. Mujiri
Manager: A. Mujiri
A. Intskirveli
Manager: A. Intskirveli

Match Recap: Betlemi vs WIT Georgia

Betlemi and WIT Georgia drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on October 30, 2025.

Goals: I. Tchikaidze (87'), G. Kakhiani (90' pen).