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Wissa Szczuczyn vs Wikielec — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
FT
1 – 1
Wikielec
Wikielec
W. Zalewski 60'
P. Kacperek 42'
10/23/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn34%
×Draw25%
Wikielec41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.36
Wikielec
1.50

Wikielec creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.00
Wikielec
1.17

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.83
Wikielec
1.72

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw
59%
Wissa Szczuczyn or Wikielec
75%
Draw or Wikielec
66%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
15%
Wikielec wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
74%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
39%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
16%
Wikielec 1+ goals
78%
Wikielec 2+ goals
44%
Wikielec 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
46%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
34%
level
25%
Wikielec scores more
41%

Wikielec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
P. Kacperek
60'
W. Zalewski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wissa Szczuczyn 1–1 Wikielec

Wissa Szczuczyn and Wikielec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 23, 2021.

Goals: P. Kacperek (42'), W. Zalewski (60').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Szczuczyn.