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Wikielec vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
5/28/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wikielec57%
×Draw23%
Wissa Szczuczyn19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.75
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.90

Wikielec creates 94% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 18 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
81%
Wikielec or Wissa Szczuczyn
77%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
43%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
32%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
83%
Wikielec 2+ goals
52%
Wikielec 3+ goals
25%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
59%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
23%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
75%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wikielec scores more
57%
level
23%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
19%

Wikielec at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wikielec 3–0 Wissa Szczuczyn

Wikielec beat Wissa Szczuczyn 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.