Wissa Szczuczyn 3–1 Unia Skierniewice

Wissa Szczuczyn

FT

3 – 1

Unia Skierniewice

11/13/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn24%

×Draw23%

Unia Skierniewice53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wissa SzczuczynExpected goals in this matchUnia Skierniewice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.82

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.15

Unia Skierniewice

1.82

Unia Skierniewice creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

1.00

creates per match

1.81

1.83

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.00

Unia Skierniewice

1.81

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.83

Unia Skierniewice

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Unia Skierniewice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw

47%

Wissa Szczuczyn or Unia Skierniewice

77%

Draw or Unia Skierniewice

76%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+

9%

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals

68%

Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals

32%

Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals

11%

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

84%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

54%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)

31%

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more

24%

level

23%

Unia Skierniewice scores more

53%

Unia Skierniewice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff