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Unia Skierniewice vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
6/10/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Unia Skierniewice64%
×Draw20%
Wissa Szczuczyn16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
2.06
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.92

Unia Skierniewice creates 124% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 18 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
84%
Unia Skierniewice or Wissa Szczuczyn
80%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
36%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
39%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
87%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
61%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
34%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
60%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
23%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
80%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
64%
level
20%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
16%

Unia Skierniewice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Skierniewice vs Wissa Szczuczyn

Wissa Szczuczyn beat Unia Skierniewice 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.