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Wissa Szczuczyn vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
FT
1 – 2
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
10/2/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn38%
×Draw24%
Mamry Giżycko38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.53
Mamry Giżycko
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.00
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.83
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw
62%
Wissa Szczuczyn or Mamry Giżycko
76%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
62%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
18%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
78%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
45%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
20%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
78%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
45%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
50%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
38%
level
24%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
38%

Wissa Szczuczyn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wissa Szczuczyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wissa Szczuczyn 1–2 Mamry Giżycko

Mamry Giżycko beat Wissa Szczuczyn 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Szczuczyn.