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Mamry Giżycko vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
5/7/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko50%
×Draw24%
Wissa Szczuczyn26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.70
Wissa Szczuczyn
1.14

Mamry Giżycko creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
74%
Mamry Giżycko or Wissa Szczuczyn
76%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
50%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
27%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
82%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
51%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
24%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
68%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
32%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
66%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.70

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
50%
level
24%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
26%

Mamry Giżycko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mamry Giżycko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamry Giżycko vs Wissa Szczuczyn

Mamry Giżycko beat Wissa Szczuczyn 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.