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Wissa Szczuczyn vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
6/1/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn29%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.31
Legionovia Legionowo
1.76

Legionovia Legionowo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.00
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn
1.83
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw
52%
Wissa Szczuczyn or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
71%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
12%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
73%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
38%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
14%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
83%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
52%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
37%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
29%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
48%

Legionovia Legionowo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wissa Szczuczyn vs Legionovia Legionowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Wissa Szczuczyn 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Szczuczyn.