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Legionovia Legionowo vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
3 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
10/30/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo65%
×Draw20%
Wissa Szczuczyn15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
2.11
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.91

Legionovia Legionowo creates 132% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
85%
Legionovia Legionowo or Wissa Szczuczyn
80%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
35%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
41%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
88%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
62%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
35%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
60%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
23%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
81%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
65%
level
20%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
15%

Legionovia Legionowo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Wissa Szczuczyn

Legionovia Legionowo beat Wissa Szczuczyn 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.