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Wismut Gera vs RSV Eintracht — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
8/4/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 1Stadion Am Steg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wismut Gera30%
×Draw22%
RSV Eintracht48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wismut Gera
1.53
RSV Eintracht
1.98

RSV Eintracht creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wismut Gera
1.73
RSV Eintracht
1.63

allows per match

Wismut Gera
2.33
RSV Eintracht
1.33

finishing

Wismut Gera+0.00on par
RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wismut Gera ↓

RSV Eintracht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Wismut Gera or draw
52%
Wismut Gera or RSV Eintracht
78%
Draw or RSV Eintracht
70%

Winning margin

Wismut Gera wins by 2+
14%
RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Wismut Gera 1+ goals
78%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
45%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
20%
RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
86%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
59%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
38%
RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wismut Gera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

RSV Eintracht away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wismut Gera attack 1.73 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

RSV Eintracht attack 1.63 + Wismut Gera defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wismut Gera scores more
30%
level
22%
RSV Eintracht scores more
48%

RSV Eintracht at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Wismut Gera 2–0 RSV Eintracht

Wismut Gera beat RSV Eintracht 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Am Steg in Gera.