RSV Eintracht 3–0 Wismut Gera: Result & Stats

RSV Eintracht

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wismut Gera

12/14/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Sportplatz Dreilinden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSV Eintracht68%

×Draw16%

Wismut Gera15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSV EintrachtExpected goals in this matchWismut Gera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.24

RSV Eintracht

2.75

Wismut Gera

1.24

RSV Eintracht creates 122% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.63

creates per match

1.60

0.87

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

RSV Eintracht

2.63

Wismut Gera

1.60

allows per match

RSV Eintracht

0.87

Wismut Gera

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Wismut Gera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw

85%

RSV Eintracht or Wismut Gera

84%

Draw or Wismut Gera

32%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+

48%

Wismut Gera wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals

93%

RSV Eintracht 2+ goals

75%

RSV Eintracht 3+ goals

51%

Wismut Gera 1+ goals

71%

Wismut Gera 2+ goals

35%

Wismut Gera 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)

82%

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 2.63 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.75

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + RSV Eintracht defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more

68%

level

16%

Wismut Gera scores more

15%

RSV Eintracht at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff