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Wismut Gera vs Magdeburg II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
11/30/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 14Stadion Am Steg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wismut Gera21%
×Draw18%
Magdeburg II61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wismut Gera
1.43
Magdeburg II
2.53

Magdeburg II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wismut Gera
1.73
Magdeburg II
2.73

allows per match

Wismut Gera
2.33
Magdeburg II
1.13

finishing

Wismut Gera+0.00on par
Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wismut Gera ↓

Magdeburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Wismut Gera or draw
39%
Wismut Gera or Magdeburg II
82%
Draw or Magdeburg II
79%

Winning margin

Wismut Gera wins by 2+
9%
Magdeburg II wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Wismut Gera 1+ goals
76%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
42%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
17%
Magdeburg II 1+ goals
92%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
71%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
25%
Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wismut Gera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wismut Gera attack 1.73 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.43

Magdeburg II attack 2.73 + Wismut Gera defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wismut Gera scores more
21%
level
18%
Magdeburg II scores more
61%

Magdeburg II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Wismut Gera 0–7 Magdeburg II

Magdeburg II beat Wismut Gera 7-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Am Steg in Gera.