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Magdeburg II vs Wismut Gera — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
5/25/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Magdeburg II65%
×Draw17%
Wismut Gera18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg II
2.70
Wismut Gera
1.36

Magdeburg II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Magdeburg II
2.53
Wismut Gera
1.60

allows per match

Magdeburg II
1.13
Wismut Gera
2.87

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par
Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Wismut Gera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw
82%
Magdeburg II or Wismut Gera
83%
Draw or Wismut Gera
35%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+
44%
Wismut Gera wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals
93%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
75%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
50%
Wismut Gera 1+ goals
74%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
39%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
79%
Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.70

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Magdeburg II scores more
65%
level
17%
Wismut Gera scores more
18%

Magdeburg II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Magdeburg II 4–2 Wismut Gera

Magdeburg II beat Wismut Gera 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.