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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Wisłoka Dębica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
10/31/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 15Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice40%
×Draw26%
Wisłoka Dębica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.42
Wisłoka Dębica
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
Wisłoka Dębica
1.49

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
Wisłoka Dębica
1.46

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
65%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Wisłoka Dębica
74%
Draw or Wisłoka Dębica
60%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
19%
Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
76%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
41%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
17%
Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
73%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
38%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
53%
Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
40%
level
26%
Wisłoka Dębica scores more
35%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Wisłoka Dębica

Wiślanie Jaśkowice and Wisłoka Dębica drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Milenium in Skawina.