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Wisłoka Dębica vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
3/29/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica42%
×Draw24%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.65
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.46

Wisłoka Dębica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.55

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.78

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
66%
Wisłoka Dębica or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
76%
Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
58%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
22%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
81%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
49%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
23%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
77%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
43%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
55%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
42%
level
24%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
34%

Wisłoka Dębica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisłoka Dębica 0–3 Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Wiślanie Jaśkowice beat Wisłoka Dębica 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.