Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0–1 Wieczysta Kraków

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wieczysta Kraków

3/2/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice36%

×Draw25%

Wieczysta Kraków39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiślanie JaśkowiceExpected goals in this matchWieczysta Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.44

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.37

Wieczysta Kraków

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.39

creates per match

1.74

1.14

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.39

Wieczysta Kraków

1.74

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.14

Wieczysta Kraków

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw

61%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Wieczysta Kraków

75%

Draw or Wieczysta Kraków

64%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

16%

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

75%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

40%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

16%

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

76%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

42%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

48%

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.74 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

36%

level

25%

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

39%

Wieczysta Kraków at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff