Wieczysta Kraków 5–3 Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Wieczysta Kraków

FT

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

8/12/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków68%

×Draw17%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wieczysta KrakówExpected goals in this matchWiślanie Jaśkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.14

Wieczysta Kraków

2.58

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.14

Wieczysta Kraków creates 126% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

3.39

creates per match

1.55

0.73

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków

3.39

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.55

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków

0.73

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw

85%

Wieczysta Kraków or Wiślanie Jaśkowice

83%

Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice

32%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

46%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

92%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

72%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

47%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

68%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

32%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

82%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.58

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

68%

level

17%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

15%

Wieczysta Kraków at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff