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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
5/2/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Miejski w Skawinie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice51%
×Draw23%
Wiązownica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.78
Wiązownica
1.20

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
74%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Wiązownica
77%
Draw or Wiązownica
49%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
28%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
83%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
53%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
26%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
70%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
34%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
66%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
51%
level
23%
Wiązownica scores more
26%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1–1 Wiązownica

Wiślanie Jaśkowice and Wiązownica drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skawinie in Skawina.