Wiązownica 2–1 Wiślanie Jaśkowice: Result & Stats

Wiązownica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

10/20/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiązownica37%

×Draw23%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiązownicaExpected goals in this matchWiślanie Jaśkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.70

Wiązownica

1.62

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 51 away

1.46

creates per match

1.55

1.85

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Wiązownica

1.46

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.55

allows per match

Wiązownica

1.85

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw

60%

Wiązownica or Wiślanie Jaśkowice

77%

Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice

63%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+

18%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals

80%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

48%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

22%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

82%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

51%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

48%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.62

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wiązownica scores more

37%

level

23%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

40%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff