Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3–0 Unia Tarnow: Result & Stats

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

FT

3 – 0

Unia Tarnow

8/3/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Miejski w Skawinie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice54%

×Draw23%

Unia Tarnow24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiślanie JaśkowiceExpected goals in this matchUnia Tarnow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.15

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.85

Unia Tarnow

1.15

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 61% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.39

creates per match

1.16

1.14

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.39

Unia Tarnow

1.16

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.14

Unia Tarnow

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Unia Tarnow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw

76%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Unia Tarnow

77%

Draw or Unia Tarnow

46%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

30%

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

84%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

55%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

28%

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

68%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

32%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

69%

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.85

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

54%

level

23%

Unia Tarnow scores more

24%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff