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Unia Tarnow vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unia Tarnow34%
×Draw23%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.54
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.75

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.55

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.78

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
57%
Unia Tarnow or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
77%
Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
66%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
16%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
79%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
45%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
20%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
83%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
52%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
44%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
34%
level
23%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
43%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Unia Tarnow 0–1 Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Wiślanie Jaśkowice beat Unia Tarnow 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.