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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
11/22/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 18Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice37%
×Draw26%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.34
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
63%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
74%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
63%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
17%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
74%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
39%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
15%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
74%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
38%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
50%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
37%
level
26%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
37%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Wiślanie Jaśkowice beat Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Milenium in Skawina.