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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
5/10/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg54%
×Draw22%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.02
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.29

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 57% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.55

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.78

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
76%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
78%
Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
46%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
32%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
87%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
60%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
33%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
72%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
37%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
69%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
54%
level
22%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 9–0 Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Wiślanie Jaśkowice 9-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.