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Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice47%
×Draw24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.64
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.22

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.39
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.14
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw
72%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
76%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
53%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
25%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
81%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
49%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
70%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
34%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
62%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
47%
level
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
28%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Wiślanie Jaśkowice beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Milenium in Skawina.