Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
11/4/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski38%
×Draw24%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.56
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 51 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.55

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1.78

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
61%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
76%
Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice
62%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
18%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
79%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
46%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
21%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals
79%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals
47%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
49%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
38%
level
24%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more
39%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Wiślanie Jaśkowice beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.