Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3–0 Karpaty Krosno

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karpaty Krosno

4/13/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Milenium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice58%

×Draw22%

Karpaty Krosno20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiślanie JaśkowiceExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Krosno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.93

Karpaty Krosno

1.04

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 86% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

1.14

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.39

Karpaty Krosno

0.94

allows per match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.14

Karpaty Krosno

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiślanie Jaśkowice ↓

Karpaty Krosno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or draw

80%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice or Karpaty Krosno

78%

Draw or Karpaty Krosno

42%

Winning margin

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

34%

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

85%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

57%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

30%

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

65%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

28%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

74%

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.39 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.93

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

58%

level

22%

Karpaty Krosno scores more

20%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff