Karpaty Krosno 0–2 Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Karpaty Krosno

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

9/16/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno30%

×Draw25%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty KrosnoExpected goals in this matchWiślanie Jaśkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.51

Karpaty Krosno

1.19

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.51

Wiślanie Jaśkowice creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.59

creates per match

1.55

1.47

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno

0.59

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.55

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno

1.47

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Wiślanie Jaśkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Wiślanie Jaśkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw

55%

Karpaty Krosno or Wiślanie Jaśkowice

75%

Draw or Wiślanie Jaśkowice

70%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

12%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

70%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

33%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

12%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1+ goals

78%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2+ goals

44%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

40%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Wiślanie Jaśkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Wiślanie Jaśkowice defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.19

Wiślanie Jaśkowice attack 1.55 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more

30%

level

25%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice scores more

45%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wiślanie Jaśkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff