Wisla Plock 0–1 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

11/26/2023

I Liga · Round 16Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock52%

×Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.04

Wisla Plock

1.65

Znicz Pruszków

1.04

Wisla Plock creates 59% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

0.97

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Wisla Plock

1.86

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

allows per match

Wisla Plock

0.97

Znicz Pruszków

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

76%

Wisla Plock or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

48%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

28%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

81%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

49%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

23%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

65%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

28%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

68%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

52%

level

25%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

24%

Wisla Plock at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff