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Wisla Plock vs Polonia Warszawa — I Liga 2018

Wisla Plock
Wisla Plockadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
5/29/2025I LigaI Liga · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsOrlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock46%
×Draw25%
Polonia Warszawa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Plock
1.58
Polonia Warszawa
1.21

Wisla Plock creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wisla Plock
1.86
Polonia Warszawa
1.45

allows per match

Wisla Plock
0.97
Polonia Warszawa
1.30

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw
71%
Wisla Plock or Polonia Warszawa
75%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
54%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+
23%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals
79%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
47%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
21%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
70%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
34%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
61%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.45 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wisla Plock scores more
46%
level
25%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
29%

Wisla Plock at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisla Plock vs Polonia Warszawa

Wisla Plock beat Polonia Warszawa 2-1 in I Liga on May 29, 2025.

The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Płock.