Wisla Plock 1–2 Polonia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Polonia Warszawa

2/7/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wisla Plock48%

×Draw22%

Polonia Warszawa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.48

Wisla Plock

1.91

Polonia Warszawa

1.48

Wisla Plock creates 29% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

2.04

creates per match

1.78

1.17

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Wisla Plock

2.04

Polonia Warszawa

1.78

allows per match

Wisla Plock

1.17

Polonia Warszawa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Polonia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

70%

Wisla Plock or Polonia Warszawa

78%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa

52%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

27%

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

85%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

57%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

30%

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

77%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

43%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

61%

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 2.04 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.91

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.78 + Wisla Plock defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

48%

level

22%

Polonia Warszawa scores more

30%

Wisla Plock at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff