Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wisla Plock vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
11/11/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 15Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock54%
×Draw24%
Odra Opole22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Plock
1.73
Odra Opole
1.02

Wisla Plock creates 70% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 138 away

creates per match

Wisla Plock
1.86
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Wisla Plock
0.97
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw
78%
Wisla Plock or Odra Opole
76%
Draw or Odra Opole
46%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+
30%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals
82%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
52%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
25%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
64%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
27%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
71%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wisla Plock scores more
54%
level
24%
Odra Opole scores more
22%

Wisla Plock at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisla Plock vs Odra Opole

Wisla Plock beat Odra Opole 2-0 in I Liga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Płock.