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Odra Opole vs Wisla Plock — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
5/12/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Opole41%
×Draw27%
Wisla Plock32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.34
Wisla Plock
1.16

Odra Opole creates 16% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Wisla Plock
1.21

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Wisla Plock
1.47

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Wisla Plock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
68%
Odra Opole or Wisla Plock
73%
Draw or Wisla Plock
59%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
19%
Wisla Plock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
74%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
39%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
15%
Wisla Plock 1+ goals
69%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
32%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
56%
Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Opole scores more
41%
level
27%
Wisla Plock scores more
32%

Odra Opole at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Opole vs Wisla Plock

Odra Opole beat Wisla Plock 3-0 in I Liga on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Opole.