Wisla Plock 2–1 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Miedz Legnica

É. Thiakane 59'

M. Haglind-Sangré 47'

W. Bogacz 45+2'

4/24/2024

I Liga · Round 29Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock47%

×Draw26%

Miedz Legnica27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.09

Wisla Plock

1.52

Miedz Legnica

1.09

Wisla Plock creates 39% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 103 away

1.86

creates per match

1.22

0.97

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Wisla Plock

1.86

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Wisla Plock

0.97

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

73%

Wisla Plock or Miedz Legnica

74%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

53%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

24%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

78%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

45%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

20%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

66%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

30%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

63%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

47%

level

26%

Miedz Legnica scores more

27%

Wisla Plock at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

17'

28'

45+1'

45+2'

46'

D. Kocyła← F. Gerbowski

47'

52'

53'

54'

54'

58'

59'

63'

M. Lehaire← I. Kaczmarski

63'

S. Zalewski← M. Kostka

68'

M. Lehaire

70'

K. Drzazga← W. Bogacz

72'

M. Szwoch

74'

D. Niepsuj

80'

A. Chrzanowski← F. Hiszpański

80'

J. Westermark← É. Thiakane

83'

M. Mansfeld← K. Antonik

89'

J. Westermark

90+3'

I. Drapinski

Wisla

Miedz

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Żuraw

46'▲D. Kocyła←▼F. Gerbowski

80'▲A. Chrzanowski←▼F. Hiszpański

80'▲J. Westermark←▼É. Thiakane

Wisla Plock substitutes

KocyłaChrzanowskiWestermarkKuchkoKamińskiLaskowskiLewandowskiLorencTomczyk

Manager: I. Mamrot

63'▲M. Lehaire←▼I. Kaczmarski

63'▲S. Zalewski←▼M. Kostka

70'▲K. Drzazga←▼W. Bogacz

83'▲M. Mansfeld←▼K. Antonik

Miedz Legnica substitutes

LehaireZalewskiDrzazgaMansfeldGuzdekAgborJózefiakAbramowiczPierzak

I Liga: Wisla Plock 2–1 Miedz Legnica

Wisla Plock beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 in I Liga on April 24, 2024.

Goals: W. Bogacz (45+2'), M. Haglind-Sangré (47'), É. Thiakane (59').

The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Płock.

Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Wisla Plock 2–1 Miedz Legnica